By Scott Italiaander

Wow. The internet and talk radio are alive with election fever.  There is polling that apparently shows a late "surge" by the G.O.P., analysis that suggests "Republicans Coming Home," anecdotal evidence that Democrat strategists are in panic mode, breathless reporting by the MSM that the election is tightening, etc. 
 
Movie critic and radio talk show host Michael Medved predicts that Tuesday will be a "good day for the G.O.P."  Quin Hillyer of The American Spectator and John Gizzi of Human Events are supremely--and surreally--confident that the Republicans will hang on to both the Senate and the House.  Richard Baer of The American Thinker--who is not given to partisan flights of fancy-- believes the G.O.P. will retain the Senate and lose the House--but finds it plausible that with high G.O.P. turnout the House can be saved for the Republicans. 

On the other hand, long-time political analysts Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook predict a mini-wave in favor of the Democrats that could result in as many as 40 Republican seats flipping to the Dems (a 15-seat switch is all that is needed for the Dems to control the House).  It is not clear whether they believe that any Democrat House seats are vulnerable to G.O.P. challengers.  Dick Morris predicts a "GOP Massacre," yet seems to leave the door open for the G.O.P. Senate majority holding.  With Morris, one never knows whether his analysis serves the public interest or merely his own.

It seems to me that the professionals with the best reputations for integrity and accuracy are the ones to give credence to.  Hillyer of The Spectator has a long record of accurately predicting the outcome of congressional races, at least according to his own bio.  RealClearPolitics (RCP), my own "home base" for all things political on the web, shows the Senate races in Maryland, Virginia, Missouri, Montana and Rhode Island as toss-ups, but its "RCP Average" of all the big name polls shows the Democrats getting a net six (6) seats on election day, just enough to make it the majority in the Senate.  On the House side, RCP Averages shows that 13 G.O.P. seats "lean" Democratic, and another 14 are toss-ups, with only 2 Dem seats that lean Republican (both in Georgia by the way).

The one pro that both Dems and Republicans admire perhaps more than any other for his intellect, analysis and accuracy is Michael Barone of U.S. News.  Barone is known to any who watched the McLaughlin Group over the years, and is one of the hardest-working political reporters in the business.  You will probably see him on FOXNews tomorrow night during their wall-to-wall election coverage, poring over his charts and tables.  Here is his latest post:

"Republicans are plainly on the defensive in Senate and House races, and if they lose all or almost all the close Senate races and if they forfeit as many House seats as they seem likely to, Democrats could end up with majorities in both the House and Senate. On the House side, Republicans, even while holding most of their seats that have long been recognized as seriously contested, could lose overwhelmingly Bush '04 seats where Democrats are running attractive candidates and Republicans nominated by plurality candidates with serious liabilities (Idaho District One, Nebraska District Three) or where Republicans who have never had to campaign much have been caught unawares (New York 25). Many outcomes are possible."

So there you have it...a brilliant statement of the obvious, which is that "if" the close races fall to the Dems as they seem "likely" to, the Dems will control both the House and the Senate.

Who am I to argue with Barone, or any of these guys.  My own prediction is that the House falls and the Senate doesn't.  But two things will thrill me if they come to pass, no matter what else happens.  One is if Michael Steele wins the Senate race in Maryland and becomes the first black Republican Senator since...I don't know when.  The other is if, in a miracle, the voters of Pennsylvania come to their senses and reject Bob Casey's bid to unseat Rick Santorum

Now, GOAV.  Go Out and Vote.  Thats all we can do.